Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros, while the market favors UT Arlington Mavericks (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: UT Arlington Mavericks (-4.5)
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (33%) · Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at 50¢ · $717 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
9
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 33%
$717.44
$2.51
50.7¢ → 50¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTexas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors UT Arlington Mavericks 50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 50.8¢ | $319.84 | $317.93 | -$1.91 | 54% 550-471 (1021) |
HO HomeRunHazard | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 49¢ | $241.3 | $246.57 | +$5.27 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 50.4¢ | $72.07 | $71.47 | -$0.6 | 46% 526-624 (1150) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 51.2¢ | $47.44 | $46.3 | -$1.14 | 45% 177-217 (394) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 47¢ | $15.51 | $16.5 | +$0.99 | 33% 109-217 (326) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 48¢ | $72.45 | $10.8 | -$0.47 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 48¢ | $2.77 | $2.88 | +$0.12 | 35% 166-306 (472) |
BA Bagwell306<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.5 | +$0.2 | 33% 70-139 (209) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.5 | +$0.05 | 41% 708-1019 (1727) |
Invested
$319.84
Value
$317.93
PnL
-$1.91
Record
54%
550-471 (1021)
Invested
$241.3
Value
$246.57
PnL
+$5.27
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$72.07
Value
$71.47
PnL
-$0.6
Record
46%
526-624 (1150)
Invested
$47.44
Value
$46.3
PnL
-$1.14
Record
45%
177-217 (394)
Invested
$15.51
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$0.99
Record
33%
109-217 (326)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$72.45
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$0.47
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.12
Record
35%
166-306 (472)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
33%
70-139 (209)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
708-1019 (1727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
monkeymashingkeyboard
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $317.93
HomeRunHazard
UT Arlington Mavericks — $246.57
omnibus-076daa
UT Arlington Mavericks — $71.47
glennyorkshire
UT Arlington Mavericks — $46.3
Oddstorm
UT Arlington Mavericks — $16.5
VeryLucky888
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $10.8
BoomLaLa
UT Arlington Mavericks — $2.88
Bagwell306
UT Arlington Mavericks — $2.5
ameisgoat11
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $2.5