Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs. UT Arlington Mavericks
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold UT Arlington Mavericks (45%) · UT Arlington Mavericks at 100¢ · $993 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
UT Arlington Mavericks
11
UT Arlington Mavericks 45%
$992.65
$35.79
65¢ → 99.7¢
+53% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUT Arlington Mavericks at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on UT Arlington Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 64.3¢ | $743.67 | $763.53 | +$19.85 | 56% 3778-2937 (6715) |
LI LimousinCTR | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 37¢ | $164.39 | $177.72 | +$13.33 | 37% 1153-1939 (3092) |
 dips.<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 93.9¢ | $18.78 | $18.4 | -$0.38 | 48% 1115-1227 (2342) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $13.2 | +$0 | 53% 348-313 (661) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 3.4¢ | $4.4 | $7.14 | +$2.74 | 40% 632-954 (1586) |
SM smithagent<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 93.9¢ | $6.66 | $6.52 | -$0.13 | 46% 775-926 (1701) |
 nigiri99<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.3 | +$0.05 | 51% 639-619 (1258) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 35¢ | $1.1 | $1.26 | +$0.16 | 37% 129-216 (345) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 35¢ | $0.71 | $0.81 | +$0.1 | 54% 1641-1409 (3050) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 7.2¢ | $0.36 | $0.43 | +$0.06 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 4.7¢ | $0.33 | $0.34 | +$0.01 | 53% 7310-6373 (13683) |
Invested
$743.67
Value
$763.53
PnL
+$19.85
Record
56%
3778-2937 (6715)
Invested
$164.39
Value
$177.72
PnL
+$13.33
Record
37%
1153-1939 (3092)
dips.<$100Invested
$18.78
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$0.38
Record
48%
1115-1227 (2342)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
348-313 (661)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$2.74
Record
40%
632-954 (1586)
Invested
$6.66
Value
$6.52
PnL
-$0.13
Record
46%
775-926 (1701)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
639-619 (1258)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.26
PnL
+$0.16
Record
37%
129-216 (345)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.71
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
1641-1409 (3050)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.43
PnL
+$0.06
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.34
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
7310-6373 (13683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
UT Arlington Mavericks — $763.53
Limousin
CTRTexas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $177.72
dips.
UT Arlington Mavericks — $18.4
0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks
UT Arlington Mavericks — $13.2
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRTexas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $7.14
smithagent
UT Arlington Mavericks — $6.52
nigiri99
UT Arlington Mavericks — $3.3
biying99999
CTRTexas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $1.26
VeryLucky888
CTRTexas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $0.81
38791873984189
CTRTexas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — $0.43