USC Trojans vs. California Golden Bears

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold USC Trojans (77%) · USC Trojans at 75¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

USC Trojans75¢California Golden Bears25¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

USC Trojans

Consensus Traders

USC Trojans 77%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$0.2

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 74.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUSC Trojans at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

USC Trojans

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

USC Trojans75%

California Golden Bears26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

USC Trojans10 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares12,012

Combined PnL+$16.61

California Golden Bears3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares9,498

Combined PnL-$16.42

USC Trojans — 77%California Golden Bears — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	USC Trojansavg 74.8¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$6	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
nigiri99CTR	California Golden Bearsavg 25.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$18.85	52% 128-120 (248)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	USC Trojansavg 74¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$14.52	59% 443-306 (749)
SN SnakeBall	USC Trojansavg 75¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$7.22	46% 311-361 (672)
0xheavy888	USC Trojansavg 75.3¢	$753.34	$755	+$1.66	55% 205-165 (370)
38 38791873984189	USC Trojansavg 75.5¢	$295.46	$126.4	+$0.79	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
FY fydiCTR	California Golden Bearsavg 25¢	$113.03	$115.29	+$2.26	— 3-3 (6)
VeryLucky888<$100	USC Trojansavg 74¢	$74	$75.5	+$1.5	51% 505-476 (981)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	USC Trojansavg 75¢	$62.25	$61.84	-$0.41	—
PA Pan9X<$100	USC Trojansavg 75.3¢	$42.56	$31.07	-$0.24	49% 698-741 (1439)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	USC Trojansavg 74¢	$20.43	$20.57	+$0.14	14% 29-180 (209)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	USC Trojansavg 75¢	$18.75	$18.63	-$0.13	39% 1055-1631 (2686)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	California Golden Bearsavg 25¢	$8.75	$8.93	+$0.18	—

HomeRunHazard

USC Trojans

Invested

$5,056.56

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$6

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

nigiri99CTR

California Golden Bears

Invested

$2,316.66

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$18.85

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

USC Trojans

Invested

$2,148.37

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$14.52

Record

59%

443-306 (749)

SnakeBall

USC Trojans

Invested

$1,015.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$7.22

Record

46%

311-361 (672)

0xheavy888

USC Trojans

Invested

$753.34

Value

$755

PnL

+$1.66

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

38791873984189

USC Trojans

Invested

$295.46

Value

$126.4

PnL

+$0.79

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

fydiCTR

California Golden Bears

Invested

$113.03

Value

$115.29

PnL

+$2.26

Record

—

3-3 (6)

VeryLucky888<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$74

Value

$75.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

505-476 (981)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$62.25

Value

$61.84

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$42.56

Value

$31.07

PnL

-$0.24

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

BoomLaLa<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.57

PnL

+$0.14

Record

14%

29-180 (209)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

USC Trojans

Invested

$18.75

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

39%

1055-1631 (2686)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

California Golden Bears

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$0.18

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUSC Trojans at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

USC Trojans

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that USC Trojans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.