Kansas City Roos vs. Jacksonville Dolphins

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville Dolphins (56%) · Jacksonville Dolphins at 100¢ · $812 held · ended Nov 10

Kansas City Roos<1¢Jacksonville Dolphins>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jacksonville Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Jacksonville Dolphins 56%

Total Value

$812.22

Combined PnL

$137.79

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 99.5¢

+57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidJacksonville Dolphins at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville Dolphins

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kansas City Roos1%

Jacksonville Dolphins100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jacksonville Dolphins5 traders

Total Value$804.05

Total Shares808

Combined PnL+$270.25

Kansas City Roos4 traders

Total Value$7.48

Total Shares1,662

Combined PnL-$132.45

Jacksonville Dolphins — 56%Kansas City Roos — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Jacksonville Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kansas City Roos) and the top 1000 (9 on Jacksonville Dolphins) disagree here.

sharpJacksonville Dolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJacksonville Dolphins 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKansas City Roos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jacksonville Dolphins 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 63¢	$281.98	$445.57	+$163.59	71% 34-14 (48)
SN SnakeBall	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 63¢	$195.82	$282.31	+$86.49	48% 69-75 (144)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 62¢	$38.65	$56.54	+$17.89	50% 405-412 (817)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 97.3¢	$10.82	$11.07	+$0.25	49% 183-194 (377)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 71¢	$6.1	$8.55	+$2.02	23% 49-162 (211)
RN1CTR<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 3.8¢	$30.91	$3.65	-$27.26	53% 274-241 (515)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 4.5¢	$17.99	$1.8	-$16.19	45% 163-199 (362)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kansas City Roosavg 37¢	$85.77	$1.43	-$84.33	30% 29-67 (96)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 4¢	$5.27	$0.59	-$4.67	31% 118-262 (380)

0xheavy888

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$281.98

Value

$445.57

PnL

+$163.59

Record

71%

34-14 (48)

SnakeBall

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$195.82

Value

$282.31

PnL

+$86.49

Record

48%

69-75 (144)

38791873984189<$100

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$38.65

Value

$56.54

PnL

+$17.89

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

Pan9X<$100

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$10.82

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$6.1

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$2.02

Record

23%

49-162 (211)

RN1CTR<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$30.91

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$27.26

Record

53%

274-241 (515)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$17.99

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$16.19

Record

45%

163-199 (362)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$85.77

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$84.33

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$5.27

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$4.67

Record

31%

118-262 (380)

Research grade

AvoidJacksonville Dolphins at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville Dolphins

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Jacksonville Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kansas City Roos) and the top 1000 (9 on Jacksonville Dolphins) disagree here.

sharpJacksonville Dolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJacksonville Dolphins 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKansas City Roos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jacksonville Dolphins 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jacksonville Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.