Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 155.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 59¢ · $511 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 20%
$511.43
-$7.52
Research grade
AvoidOver at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53.3¢ | $264.76 | $290.53 | +$25.78 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 46.7¢ | $232.86 | $199.59 | -$33.27 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $16.67 | $17.29 | +$0.62 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.27 | $2.01 | -$0.25 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2 | -$0.4 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
Invested
$264.76
Value
$290.53
PnL
+$25.78
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$232.86
Value
$199.59
PnL
-$33.27
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$17.29
PnL
+$0.62
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.27
Value
$2.01
PnL
-$0.25
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.4
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.