Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kentucky Wildcats, while the market favors Kansas Jayhawks (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kentucky Wildcats (80%) · Kentucky Wildcats at 50¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kentucky Wildcats
5
Kentucky Wildcats 80%
$61.61
$0.39
Research grade
AvoidKentucky Wildcats at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas Jayhawks 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Kentucky Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 49¢ | $26.42 | $26.96 | +$0.54 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 50¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 | 56% 105-81 (186) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 51¢ | $11.27 | $11.05 | -$0.22 | 35% 176-320 (496) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Kansas Jayhawksavg 50¢ | $2.53 | $2.6 | +$0.08 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 50¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 | 23% 149-494 (643) |
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$26.42
Value
$26.96
PnL
+$0.54
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
105-81 (186)
Invested
$11.27
Value
$11.05
PnL
-$0.22
Record
35%
176-320 (496)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$1
Value
$1
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
149-494 (643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.