Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kentucky Wildcats, while the market favors Kansas Jayhawks (64%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kentucky Wildcats (80%) · Kentucky Wildcats at 37¢ · $290 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kentucky Wildcats
5
Kentucky Wildcats 80%
$290
$48.77
35.9¢ → 36.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKentucky Wildcats at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas Jayhawks 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 36¢ | $119.86 | $178.13 | +$58.27 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Kansas Jayhawksavg 63¢ | $91.98 | $67.89 | -$24.09 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 36¢ | $24.01 | $35.68 | +$11.67 | 47% 197-220 (417) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 33¢ | $3.3 | $5.35 | +$2.05 | 24% 196-614 (810) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Kentucky Wildcatsavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $2.68 | +$0.88 | 21% 127-474 (601) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$119.86
Value
$178.13
PnL
+$58.27
Record
53%
85-74 (159)
Invested
$91.98
Value
$67.89
PnL
-$24.09
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$24.01
Value
$35.68
PnL
+$11.67
Record
47%
197-220 (417)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.35
PnL
+$2.05
Record
24%
196-614 (810)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2.68
PnL
+$0.88
Record
21%
127-474 (601)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.