Spread: Texas State Bobcats (-6.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (60%) · Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at 56¢ · $475 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
5
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 60%
$475.27
-$0.06
54.2¢ → 56¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTexas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 55.9¢ | $275.06 | $271.52 | -$3.54 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 53¢ | $106 | $110 | +$4 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaquerosavg 50¢ | $48.3 | $53.12 | +$4.83 | 5% 6-120 (126) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Texas State Bobcatsavg 49¢ | $44 | $38.61 | -$5.39 | 55% 106-85 (191) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Texas State Bobcatsavg 42¢ | $1.96 | $2.01 | +$0.05 | 24% 155-504 (659) |
Invested
$275.06
Value
$271.52
PnL
-$3.54
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$106
Value
$110
PnL
+$4
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$48.3
Value
$53.12
PnL
+$4.83
Record
5%
6-120 (126)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$44
Value
$38.61
PnL
-$5.39
Record
55%
106-85 (191)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.01
PnL
+$0.05
Record
24%
155-504 (659)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.