Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UT Martin Skyhawks (40%) · UT Martin Skyhawks at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
UT Martin Skyhawks
5
UT Martin Skyhawks 40%
$2.2K
-$51.71
57.2¢ → 57¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUT Martin Skyhawks at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on UT Martin Skyhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UT Martin Skyhawksavg 57.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$43.34 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Arkansas State Red Wolvesavg 43.7¢ | $230.61 | $222.29 | -$8.32 | 56% 119-94 (213) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Arkansas State Red Wolvesavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $8.4 | +$0 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Arkansas State Red Wolvesavg 42¢ | $5.16 | $5.16 | -$0 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | UT Martin Skyhawksavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.8 | -$0.05 | 26% 177-517 (694) |
Invested
$2,041.75
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$43.34
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$230.61
Value
$222.29
PnL
-$8.32
Record
56%
119-94 (213)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.05
Record
26%
177-517 (694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.