Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. South Carolina Gamecocks: O/U 129.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 45¢ · $831 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$831.28
-$22.45
47.3¢ → 44.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47.5¢ | $468.35 | $434.69 | -$33.66 | 57% 3101-2332 (5433) |
IC ic4cream | Underavg 53¢ | $305.5 | $319.96 | +$14.46 | 1% 5-443 (448) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $38.91 | $37.22 | -$1.69 | 51% 354-335 (689) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $29.61 | $27.72 | -$1.89 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Underavg 52.9¢ | $8.97 | $9.5 | +$0.53 | 68% 1614-757 (2371) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.2 | -$0.2 | 27% 201-533 (734) |
Invested
$468.35
Value
$434.69
PnL
-$33.66
Record
57%
3101-2332 (5433)
Invested
$305.5
Value
$319.96
PnL
+$14.46
Record
1%
5-443 (448)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$38.91
Value
$37.22
PnL
-$1.69
Record
51%
354-335 (689)
Invested
$29.61
Value
$27.72
PnL
-$1.89
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$0.53
Record
68%
1614-757 (2371)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
27%
201-533 (734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.