Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold South Florida Bulls, while the market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: South Florida Bulls (-7.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold South Florida Bulls (67%) · South Florida Bulls at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
South Florida Bulls
6
South Florida Bulls 67%
$1.4K
$7.11
47.2¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSouth Florida Bulls at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on South Florida Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | South Florida Bullsavg 47¢ | $897.65 | $907.2 | +$9.55 | 14% 76-471 (547) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 51.8¢ | $228.3 | $229.3 | +$1 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189CTR | South Florida Bullsavg 48.3¢ | $174.33 | $169.97 | -$4.36 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | South Florida Bullsavg 47¢ | $47 | $47.5 | +$0.5 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | South Florida Bullsavg 46¢ | $6.31 | $6.44 | +$0.14 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 48¢ | $3.36 | $3.64 | +$0.28 | 48% 668-712 (1380) |
Invested
$897.65
Value
$907.2
PnL
+$9.55
Record
14%
76-471 (547)
Invested
$228.3
Value
$229.3
PnL
+$1
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$174.33
Value
$169.97
PnL
-$4.36
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$47
Value
$47.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$6.31
Value
$6.44
PnL
+$0.14
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.64
PnL
+$0.28
Record
48%
668-712 (1380)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.