Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Siena Saints, while the market favors Dayton Flyers (52%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-12.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Siena Saints (100%) · Siena Saints at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Siena Saints
5
Siena Saints 100%
$1.1K
$3.99
47.2¢ → 48¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSiena Saints at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Dayton Flyers 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Siena Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Siena Saintsavg 47.5¢ | $439.54 | $444.53 | +$4.99 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
HI hi774cCTR | Siena Saintsavg 47¢ | $296.58 | $296.58 | +$0 | 7% 32-419 (451) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Siena Saintsavg 47¢ | $155.57 | $155.57 | +$0 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Siena Saintsavg 47.5¢ | $95 | $94 | -$1 | 47% 197-220 (417) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Siena Saintsavg 47¢ | $70.5 | $70.5 | +$0 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
Invested
$439.54
Value
$444.53
PnL
+$4.99
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
Invested
$296.58
Value
$296.58
PnL
+$0
Record
7%
32-419 (451)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$155.57
Value
$155.57
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
85-74 (159)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$95
Value
$94
PnL
-$1
Record
47%
197-220 (417)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$70.5
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.