Siena Saints vs. Dayton Flyers
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dayton Flyers (57%) · Dayton Flyers at 82¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Dayton Flyers
7
Dayton Flyers 57%
$1.2K
$149.84
88.9¢ → 81.5¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidDayton Flyers at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Dayton Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Dayton Flyersavg 89¢ | $660.95 | $643.1 | -$17.85 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Siena Saintsavg 11¢ | $138.22 | $219.9 | +$81.68 | 28% 274-715 (989) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Siena Saintsavg 10.5¢ | $150.73 | $194.33 | +$43.6 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Siena Saintsavg 11¢ | $70.67 | $112.43 | +$41.76 | 28% 278-703 (981) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Dayton Flyersavg 89¢ | $18.8 | $18.79 | -$0.01 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
 RN1<$100 | Dayton Flyersavg 80.5¢ | $9.01 | $9.81 | +$0.79 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Dayton Flyersavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.33 | -$0.13 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
Invested
$660.95
Value
$643.1
PnL
-$17.85
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$138.22
Value
$219.9
PnL
+$81.68
Record
28%
274-715 (989)
Invested
$150.73
Value
$194.33
PnL
+$43.6
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$70.67
Value
$112.43
PnL
+$41.76
Record
28%
278-703 (981)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$18.79
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
RN1<$100Invested
$9.01
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.79
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.33
PnL
-$0.13
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.