Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Abilene Christian Wildcats, while the market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (89%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Abilene Christian Wildcats (75%) · Abilene Christian Wildcats at 11¢ · $104 held · ended Nov 12

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks89¢Abilene Christian Wildcats11¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Abilene Christian Wildcats 75%

Total Value

$104

Combined PnL

-$23.3

Research grade

AvoidAbilene Christian Wildcats at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Abilene Christian Wildcats

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks89%

Abilene Christian Wildcats11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Abilene Christian Wildcats6 traders

Total Value$74.88

Total Shares272

Combined PnL-$27.31

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks2 traders

Total Value$29.12

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$4.01

Abilene Christian Wildcats — 75%Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 29.9¢	$63.64	$53.44	-$10.2	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksavg 83¢	$16.6	$17.7	+$1.1	64% 280-160 (440)
E4 0xe401...7b88<$100	Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksavg 63¢	$8.51	$11.42	+$2.91	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 31¢	$20.78	$10.39	-$10.39	31% 411-924 (1335)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 38.6¢	$10.64	$4.27	-$6.37	19% 50-220 (270)
1D 0x1d1d...f2dfCTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 16¢	$3.2	$3.1	-$0.1	—
RN1CTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 6.7¢	$2.43	$2.91	+$0.48	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 30¢	$1.5	$0.78	-$0.73	34% 328-634 (962)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$63.64

Value

$53.44

PnL

-$10.2

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

suitcase6628<$100

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Invested

$16.6

Value

$17.7

PnL

+$1.1

Record

64%

280-160 (440)

0xe401...7b88<$100

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Invested

$8.51

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$2.91

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$20.78

Value

$10.39

PnL

-$10.39

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$10.64

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$6.37

Record

19%

50-220 (270)

0x1d1d...f2dfCTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.48

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.73

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

AvoidAbilene Christian Wildcats at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Abilene Christian Wildcats

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Abilene Christian Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.