Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold San Diego Toreros, while the market favors Colorado Buffaloes (90%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
San Diego Toreros vs. Colorado Buffaloes
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego Toreros (83%) · San Diego Toreros at 11¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
San Diego Toreros
6
San Diego Toreros 83%
$133.89
$6.11
10.9¢ → 10.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSan Diego Toreros at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado Buffaloes 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on San Diego Toreros. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | San Diego Torerosavg 11¢ | $66.96 | $70 | +$3.04 | 24% 207-650 (857) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | San Diego Torerosavg 11¢ | $43.04 | $45 | +$1.96 | 25% 209-639 (848) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | San Diego Torerosavg 10¢ | $11.11 | $12.22 | +$1.11 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Colorado Buffaloesavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.45 | +$0 | 23% 150-497 (647) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | San Diego Torerosavg 11¢ | $1.66 | $1.66 | +$0 | 25% 210-646 (856) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | San Diego Torerosavg 11¢ | $0.56 | $0.56 | -$0 | 25% 210-628 (838) |
Invested
$66.96
Value
$70
PnL
+$3.04
Record
24%
207-650 (857)
Invested
$43.04
Value
$45
PnL
+$1.96
Record
25%
209-639 (848)
Invested
$11.11
Value
$12.22
PnL
+$1.11
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
150-497 (647)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.66
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
210-646 (856)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
210-628 (838)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.