Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chicago State Cougars, while the market favors South Carolina State Bulldogs (93%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Chicago State Cougars

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Chicago State Cougars (33%) · Chicago State Cougars at 7.5¢ · $792 held · ended Nov 9

South Carolina State Bulldogs93¢Chicago State Cougars7¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chicago State Cougars

Consensus Traders

Chicago State Cougars 33%

Total Value

$792.21

Combined PnL

-$22.01

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 7.5¢

-82% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidChicago State Cougars at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chicago State Cougars

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors South Carolina State Bulldogs 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

South Carolina State Bulldogs93%

Chicago State Cougars8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Carolina State Bulldogs6 traders

Total Value$556.54

Total Shares772

Combined PnL+$159.05

Chicago State Cougars3 traders

Total Value$235.66

Total Shares796

Combined PnL-$181.06

South Carolina State Bulldogs — 67%Chicago State Cougars — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	South Carolina State Bulldogsavg 45¢	$162.89	$259.89	+$97.01	30% 29-67 (96)
RN1	South Carolina State Bulldogsavg 62¢	$157.48	$182.88	+$25.4	54% 248-213 (461)
38 38791873984189CTR	Chicago State Cougarsavg 51.2¢	$215.43	$171.79	-$43.64	49% 398-410 (808)
VeryLucky888<$100	South Carolina State Bulldogsavg 45¢	$45	$70.28	+$26.38	50% 76-76 (152)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Chicago State Cougarsavg 38¢	$190	$57.5	-$137.5	22% 44-160 (204)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	South Carolina State Bulldogsavg 61¢	$15.25	$18	+$2.75	30% 108-250 (358)
MD mde4life1986<$100	South Carolina State Bulldogsavg 40.4¢	$10.15	$17.72	+$7.57	0% 0-24 (24)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100	South Carolina State Bulldogsavg 50¢	$7.48	$7.77	-$0.05	100% 29-0 (29)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chicago State Cougarsavg 42¢	$6.3	$6.38	+$0.08	48% 179-191 (370)

HomeRunHazard

South Carolina State Bulldogs

Invested

$162.89

Value

$259.89

PnL

+$97.01

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

RN1

South Carolina State Bulldogs

Invested

$157.48

Value

$182.88

PnL

+$25.4

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

38791873984189CTR

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$215.43

Value

$171.79

PnL

-$43.64

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

VeryLucky888<$100

South Carolina State Bulldogs

Invested

$45

Value

$70.28

PnL

+$26.38

Record

50%

76-76 (152)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$190

Value

$57.5

PnL

-$137.5

Record

22%

44-160 (204)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

South Carolina State Bulldogs

Invested

$15.25

Value

$18

PnL

+$2.75

Record

30%

108-250 (358)

mde4life1986<$100

South Carolina State Bulldogs

Invested

$10.15

Value

$17.72

PnL

+$7.57

Record

0-24 (24)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100

South Carolina State Bulldogs

Invested

$7.48

Value

$7.77

PnL

-$0.05

Record

100%

29-0 (29)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

Research grade

AvoidChicago State Cougars at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chicago State Cougars

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors South Carolina State Bulldogs 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chicago State Cougars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.