Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-2.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas Mean Green (50%) · North Texas Mean Green at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
North Texas Mean Green
4
North Texas Mean Green 50%
1 arb excluded
$7.3K
$130.46
51¢ → 53.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNorth Texas Mean Green at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on North Texas Mean Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | North Texas Mean Greenavg 51¢ | $3.5K | $3.7K | +$174.26 | 54% 521-440 (961) |
HI hi774cCTR | Santa Clara Broncosavg 49¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$50 | 14% 76-471 (547) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Santa Clara Broncosavg 49¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$44.1 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Santa Clara Broncos leg | Santa Clara Broncosavg 49¢ | $651.41 | $638.12 | -$13.29 | |
| └ North Texas Mean Green leg | North Texas Mean Greenavg 46¢ | $441.35 | $498.74 | +$57.39 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Santa Clara Broncosavg 48.6¢ | $137.25 | $75.66 | +$5.95 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | North Texas Mean Greenavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.6 | +$0.25 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
Invested
$3,547.1
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$174.26
Record
54%
521-440 (961)
Invested
$2,450
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$50
Record
14%
76-471 (547)
Invested
$1,092.76
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$44.1
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$137.25
Value
$75.66
PnL
+$5.95
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.25
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.