Spread: UCF Knights (-13.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold South Alabama Jaguars (50%) · South Alabama Jaguars at 83¢ · $938 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
South Alabama Jaguars
4
South Alabama Jaguars 50%
1 arb excluded
$937.51
$5.07
48¢ → 83¢
+73% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSouth Alabama Jaguars at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on South Alabama Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48¢ | $522.72 | $522.72 | +$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48¢ | $271.26 | $274.26 | +$3 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
| └ South Alabama Jaguars leg | South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48¢ | $189.6 | $189.6 | -$0 | |
| └ UCF Knights leg | UCF Knightsavg 49.2¢ | $81.66 | $84.66 | +$3 | |
HI hi774cCTR | UCF Knightsavg 49¢ | $114.17 | $118.83 | +$4.66 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | UCF Knightsavg 50¢ | $13.54 | $13.81 | +$0.27 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48¢ | $7.75 | $7.89 | +$0.14 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
Invested
$522.72
Value
$522.72
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$271.26
Value
$274.26
PnL
+$3
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Both legs:
Invested
$114.17
Value
$118.83
PnL
+$4.66
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$13.54
Value
$13.81
PnL
+$0.27
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$7.75
Value
$7.89
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.