South Alabama Jaguars vs. UCF Knights

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UCF Knights (40%) · UCF Knights at 93¢ · $627 held · ends Nov 11

South Alabama Jaguars8¢UCF Knights92¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

UCF Knights

Consensus Traders

UCF Knights 40%

Total Value

$626.54

Combined PnL

$10.62

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 92.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUCF Knights at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCF Knights

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Alabama Jaguars8%

UCF Knights93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCF Knights2 traders

Total Value$537.03

Total Shares611

Combined PnL-$45.91

South Alabama Jaguars3 traders

Total Value$89.51

Total Shares471

Combined PnL+$56.53

UCF Knights — 40%South Alabama Jaguars — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	UCF Knightsavg 92.9¢	$520.63	$482.76	-$37.87	57% 3070-2308 (5378)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 7¢	$31.1	$84.4	+$53.31	24% 204-632 (836)
FO forecastication4<$100	UCF Knightsavg 93¢	$62.31	$54.27	-$8.04	11% 24-188 (212)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 7¢	$1.51	$4.09	+$2.58	44% 78-100 (178)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 7¢	$0.38	$1.02	+$0.65	8% 35-419 (454)

HomeRunHazard

UCF Knights

Invested

$520.63

Value

$482.76

PnL

-$37.87

Record

57%

3070-2308 (5378)

VenusianCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$31.1

Value

$84.4

PnL

+$53.31

Record

24%

204-632 (836)

forecastication4<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$62.31

Value

$54.27

PnL

-$8.04

Record

11%

24-188 (212)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$1.51

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$2.58

Record

44%

78-100 (178)

hi774cCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$0.38

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.65

Record

35-419 (454)

Research grade

AvoidUCF Knights at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UCF Knights

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCF Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.