South Alabama Jaguars vs. North Texas Mean Green

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas Mean Green (85%) · North Texas Mean Green at 67¢ · $850 held · ended Nov 14

South Alabama Jaguars34¢North Texas Mean Green66¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Texas Mean Green

Consensus Traders

North Texas Mean Green 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$850.17

Combined PnL

-$33.84

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 66.5¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas Mean Green at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas Mean Green

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Alabama Jaguars34%

North Texas Mean Green67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Texas Mean Green11 traders

Total Value$748.16

Total Shares1,200

Combined PnL-$31.53

South Alabama Jaguars2 traders

Total Value$47.32

Total Shares249

Combined PnL-$2.31

North Texas Mean Green — 85%South Alabama Jaguars — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on North Texas Mean Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000North Texas Mean Green 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	North Texas Mean Greenavg 70¢	$181.3	$180.01	-$1.3	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
38 38791873984189	North Texas Mean Greenavg 82.5¢	$148.49	$150.3	+$1.81	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
TH thirdt1me	North Texas Mean Greenavg 68.6¢	$176.48	$110.63	-$65.85	48% 294-314 (608)
dips.	North Texas Mean Greenavg 55.4¢	$102.19	$107.53	+$18.34	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
SU suitcase6628<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 45¢	$95.93	$94.42	+$20.33	65% 646-351 (997)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 39.4¢	$53.02	$54.69	+$1.67	47% 985-1122 (2107)
└ South Alabama Jaguars leg	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 39.4¢	$26.52	$32.62	+$6.11
└ North Texas Mean Green leg	North Texas Mean Greenavg 61.9¢	$26.5	$22.06	-$4.44
nigiri99CTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 20¢	$48	$45.6	-$2.4	52% 602-565 (1167)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 82.5¢	$37.25	$27.27	-$4.72	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 42¢	$21	$21.5	+$0.5	35% 166-306 (472)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 58.3¢	$17.15	$15.58	-$1.56	55% 762-619 (1381)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 41¢	$13.55	$14.22	+$0.66	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
SM smithagent<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 59¢	$12.15	$13.7	+$1.55	45% 717-880 (1597)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 65¢	$14.3	$13	-$1.3	83% 802-165 (967)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 18¢	$1.63	$1.72	+$0.09	34% 175-339 (514)

RN1

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$181.3

Value

$180.01

PnL

-$1.3

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

38791873984189

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$148.49

Value

$150.3

PnL

+$1.81

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

thirdt1me

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$176.48

Value

$110.63

PnL

-$65.85

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

dips.

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$102.19

Value

$107.53

PnL

+$18.34

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

suitcase6628<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$95.93

Value

$94.42

PnL

+$20.33

Record

65%

646-351 (997)

SnakeBallARB<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$53.02

Value

$54.69

PnL

+$1.67

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Both legs:

South Alabama Jaguars$26.5239.4¢+$6.11

North Texas Mean Green$26.561.9¢-$4.44

nigiri99CTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$48

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

Pan9X<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$37.25

Value

$27.27

PnL

-$4.72

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

BoomLaLa<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$21

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

averagejoetraders<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$17.15

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$1.56

Record

55%

762-619 (1381)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$13.55

Value

$14.22

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

smithagent<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$12.15

Value

$13.7

PnL

+$1.55

Record

45%

717-880 (1597)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$14.3

Value

$13

PnL

-$1.3

Record

83%

802-165 (967)

forecastication4CTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.09

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas Mean Green at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas Mean Green

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on North Texas Mean Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000North Texas Mean Green 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas Mean Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.