Rice Owls vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 145.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$62.77

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,676

Combined PnL+$75.58

Under5 traders

Total Value$417.21

Total Shares888

Combined PnL-$12.81

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50.1¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	+$73.87	29% 32-78 (110)
IC ic4cream	Overavg 49.8¢	$538	$561.37	-$3.62	0% 0-332 (332)
HI hi774c	Overavg 49¢	$502.65	$507.44	+$4.79	3% 9-294 (303)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$666	$310.65	-$6.61	69% 34-15 (49)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$94	-$6	100% 51-0 (51)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 49¢	$57.23	$57.77	+$0.55	49% 427-449 (876)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$16.72	$7.86	-$0.05	52% 119-110 (229)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.43	$2.35	-$0.08	18% 55-248 (303)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.43	$2.35	-$0.08	28% 99-254 (353)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,549.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$73.87

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$538

Value

$561.37

PnL

-$3.62

Record

0-332 (332)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$502.65

Value

$507.44

PnL

+$4.79

Record

9-294 (303)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$666

Value

$310.65

PnL

-$6.61

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,050

Value

$94

PnL

-$6

Record

100%

51-0 (51)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$57.23

Value

$57.77

PnL

+$0.55

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.72

Value

$7.86

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.08

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.08

Record

28%

99-254 (353)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.