Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Queens (NC) Royals vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 181.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 32¢ · $892 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$891.63
$137.05
48.1¢ → 31.5¢
-34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $590.05 | $694.15 | +$104.1 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $124.41 | $150.39 | +$25.98 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $24.88 | $28.69 | +$3.8 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $12.83 | $15.51 | +$2.67 | 51% 330-315 (645) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.9 | +$0.5 | 26% 185-519 (704) |
Invested
$590.05
Value
$694.15
PnL
+$104.1
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$124.41
Value
$150.39
PnL
+$25.98
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$24.88
Value
$28.69
PnL
+$3.8
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.83
Value
$15.51
PnL
+$2.67
Record
51%
330-315 (645)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.5
Record
26%
185-519 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.