Spread: San Francisco Dons (-8.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Portland State Vikings (60%) · Portland State Vikings at 52¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Portland State Vikings
5
Portland State Vikings 60%
$7.3K
$107
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPortland State Vikings at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Portland State Vikingsavg 51¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$24.66 | 50% 2600-2575 (5175) |
HI hi774cCTR | San Francisco Donsavg 49¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$42.83 | 23% 187-633 (820) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | San Francisco Donsavg 49¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$28.59 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
VI vibing123 | Portland State Vikingsavg 51¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.92 | 62% 1152-704 (1856) |
CR Crazyboy77<$100 | Portland State Vikingsavg 50¢ | $55.21 | $55.21 | -$0 | 13% 16-107 (123) |
Invested
$2,544.8
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$24.66
Record
50%
2600-2575 (5175)
Invested
$2,098.78
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$42.83
Record
23%
187-633 (820)
Invested
$1,401
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$28.59
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$1,113.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.92
Record
62%
1152-704 (1856)
Invested
$55.21
Value
$55.21
PnL
-$0
Record
13%
16-107 (123)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.