Spread: Oregon Ducks (-16.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pepperdine Waves (56%) · Pepperdine Waves at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Oregon Ducks47¢Pepperdine Waves53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pepperdine Waves

Consensus Traders

Pepperdine Waves 56%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$0.83

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon Ducks47%

Pepperdine Waves54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pepperdine Waves5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,280

Combined PnL+$6.49

Oregon Ducks4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,292

Combined PnL-$5.65

Pepperdine Waves — 56%Oregon Ducks — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOregon Ducks 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$30.95	26% 249-694 (943)
IC ic4cream	Pepperdine Wavesavg 55.7¢	$913.14	$877.15	-$35.99	9% 48-480 (528)
38 38791873984189	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54.3¢	$814.18	$824.58	+$10.39	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
CA canupdatelateronCTR	Oregon Ducksavg 44.3¢	$664.99	$674.99	+$10	68% 30-14 (44)
BA Bayupati	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54.8¢	$592.77	$594.7	+$1.94	20% 40-164 (204)
one8tyfiveCTR	Oregon Ducksavg 47.9¢	$221.64	$203.72	-$17.92	58% 18-13 (31)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Oregon Ducksavg 44¢	$131.74	$134.73	+$2.99	30% 489-1134 (1623)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54.2¢	$58.61	$57.8	-$0.8	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Oregon Ducksavg 46.5¢	$13.59	$12.86	-$0.73	35% 139-253 (392)

hi774c

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$1,592.72

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$30.95

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

ic4cream

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$913.14

Value

$877.15

PnL

-$35.99

Record

48-480 (528)

38791873984189

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$814.18

Value

$824.58

PnL

+$10.39

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

canupdatelateronCTR

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$664.99

Value

$674.99

PnL

+$10

Record

68%

30-14 (44)

Bayupati

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$592.77

Value

$594.7

PnL

+$1.94

Record

20%

40-164 (204)

one8tyfiveCTR

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$221.64

Value

$203.72

PnL

-$17.92

Record

58%

18-13 (31)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$131.74

Value

$134.73

PnL

+$2.99

Record

30%

489-1134 (1623)

Pan9X<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$58.61

Value

$57.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

OddstormCTR<$100

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$13.59

Value

$12.86

PnL

-$0.73

Record

35%

139-253 (392)

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOregon Ducks 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pepperdine Waves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.