Spread: Oregon Ducks (-15.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pepperdine Waves (88%) · Pepperdine Waves at 54¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Oregon Ducks47¢Pepperdine Waves53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pepperdine Waves

Consensus Traders

Pepperdine Waves 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

-$187.13

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon Ducks47%

Pepperdine Waves54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pepperdine Waves7 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares20,461

Combined PnL-$207.13

Oregon Ducks1 trader

Total Value$240

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$20

Pepperdine Waves — 88%Oregon Ducks — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPepperdine Waves 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPepperdine Waves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bayupati	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54.6¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$99.71	20% 40-164 (204)
IC ic4cream	Pepperdine Wavesavg 53.3¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$16.34	9% 48-480 (528)
BI biying99999	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$52.47	40% 152-227 (379)
BA Bagwell306	Pepperdine Wavesavg 53.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$15.36	37% 94-160 (254)
HI hi774c	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54¢	$939.6	$922.2	-$17.4	26% 249-694 (943)
one8tyfiveARB<$100	Oregon Ducksavg 47.8¢	$1.2K	$712.73	-$35.86	58% 18-13 (31)
└ Oregon Ducks leg	Oregon Ducksavg 47.8¢	$546.13	$531.14	-$14.99
└ Pepperdine Waves leg	Pepperdine Wavesavg 54¢	$183.29	$181.59	-$20.87
CA canupdatelateronCTR	Oregon Ducksavg 44¢	$220	$240	+$20	67% 29-14 (43)
VeryLucky888	Pepperdine Wavesavg 55¢	$165	$159	-$6	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 53¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	43% 855-1138 (1993)

Bayupati

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$3,405.07

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$99.71

Record

20%

40-164 (204)

ic4cream

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$2,645.66

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$16.34

Record

48-480 (528)

biying99999

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$2,524.39

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$52.47

Record

40%

152-227 (379)

Bagwell306

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$1,368.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$15.36

Record

37%

94-160 (254)

hi774c

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$939.6

Value

$922.2

PnL

-$17.4

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

one8tyfiveARB<$100

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$1,248.35

Value

$712.73

PnL

-$35.86

Record

58%

18-13 (31)

Both legs:

Oregon Ducks$546.1347.8¢-$14.99

Pepperdine Waves$183.2954¢-$20.87

canupdatelateronCTR

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$220

Value

$240

PnL

+$20

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

VeryLucky888

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$165

Value

$159

PnL

-$6

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

855-1138 (1993)

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPepperdine Waves 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPepperdine Waves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pepperdine Waves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.