Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Penn Quakers, while the market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks (63%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Penn Quakers vs. Saint Joseph's Hawks

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Penn Quakers (30%) · Penn Quakers at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Penn Quakers38¢Saint Joseph's Hawks62¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Penn Quakers

Consensus Traders

Penn Quakers 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$2.9

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 37.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Penn Quakers38%

Saint Joseph's Hawks63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn Quakers3 traders

Total Value$241.69

Total Shares620

Combined PnL+$6.79

Saint Joseph's Hawks7 traders

Total Value$281

Total Shares445

Combined PnL-$3.89

Penn Quakers — 30%Saint Joseph's Hawks — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Penn Quakers) and the top 1000 (5 on Saint Joseph's Hawks) disagree here.

ctrPenn Quakers 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPenn Quakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Saint Joseph's Hawks 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 61¢	$484.85	$494.44	+$9.59	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
└ Saint Joseph's Hawks leg	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 61¢	$343.16	$343.16	+$0
└ Penn Quakers leg	Penn Quakersavg 36.5¢	$141.69	$151.28	+$9.59
LI LightParadoxCTR	Penn Quakersavg 38¢	$212.8	$218.4	+$5.6	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
MD mde4life1986	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 64¢	$140.76	$134.16	-$6.6	5% 4-69 (73)
RN1<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 62¢	$71.17	$70.6	-$0.57	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 58¢	$29.44	$31.47	+$2.03	48% 294-314 (608)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 60¢	$26.32	$27.16	+$0.84	83% 802-165 (967)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Penn Quakersavg 37¢	$21.09	$22.23	+$1.14	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
PA Pan9X<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 62¢	$10.08	$10.17	+$0.09	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 58¢	$3.83	$4.1	+$0.26	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
0xheavy888<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 60¢	$3.3	$3.36	+$0.06	56% 541-433 (974)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Penn Quakersavg 37¢	$1	$1.06	+$0.05	54% 1525-1316 (2841)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$484.85

Value

$494.44

PnL

+$9.59

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Both legs:

Saint Joseph's Hawks$343.1661¢+$0

Penn Quakers$141.6936.5¢+$9.59

LightParadoxCTR

Penn Quakers

Invested

$212.8

Value

$218.4

PnL

+$5.6

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

mde4life1986

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$140.76

Value

$134.16

PnL

-$6.6

Record

4-69 (73)

RN1<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$71.17

Value

$70.6

PnL

-$0.57

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

thirdt1me<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$29.44

Value

$31.47

PnL

+$2.03

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$26.32

Value

$27.16

PnL

+$0.84

Record

83%

802-165 (967)

VenusianCTR<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$21.09

Value

$22.23

PnL

+$1.14

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

Pan9X<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$3.83

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

0xheavy888<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Penn Quakers) and the top 1000 (5 on Saint Joseph's Hawks) disagree here.

ctrPenn Quakers 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPenn Quakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Saint Joseph's Hawks 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn Quakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.