Pacific Tigers vs. Long Beach State Beach
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacific Tigers (40%) · Pacific Tigers at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacific Tigers
5
Pacific Tigers 40%
$1.4K
-$50.94
68¢ → 67.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacific Tigers at 68%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Pacific Tigersavg 68¢ | $454.9 | $451.59 | -$3.31 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
DC 0xdc41...dd7eCTR | Long Beach State Beachavg 32¢ | $425.92 | $432.58 | +$6.65 | — |
B0 0xb0e3...29eb | Pacific Tigersavg 68¢ | $499.8 | $422.62 | -$77.18 | — |
E9 0xe907...cff6CTR<$100 | Long Beach State Beachavg 32¢ | $67.21 | $89.26 | +$22.05 | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Long Beach State Beachavg 32¢ | $50.48 | $51.32 | +$0.84 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
0xheavy888Invested
$454.9
Value
$451.59
PnL
-$3.31
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
Invested
$425.92
Value
$432.58
PnL
+$6.65
Record
—
Invested
$499.8
Value
$422.62
PnL
-$77.18
Record
—
Invested
$67.21
Value
$89.26
PnL
+$22.05
Record
—
Invested
$50.48
Value
$51.32
PnL
+$0.84
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.