Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, while the market favors Tulsa Golden Hurricane (52%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-17.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (20%) · Oral Roberts Golden Eagles at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
5
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles 20%
$1.7K
-$18.83
Research grade
AvoidOral Roberts Golden Eagles at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Tulsa Golden Hurricane 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Oral Roberts Golden Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Oral Roberts Golden Eaglesavg 49.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$22.73 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
IC ic4cream | Tulsa Golden Hurricaneavg 50.5¢ | $533.97 | $549.96 | +$15.99 | 2% 11-448 (459) |
 VeryLucky888 | Tulsa Golden Hurricaneavg 54¢ | $152.39 | $3.94 | -$12.08 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Tulsa Golden Hurricaneavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.6 | +$0 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Tulsa Golden Hurricaneavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.6 | +$0 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$1,203.46
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$22.73
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$533.97
Value
$549.96
PnL
+$15.99
Record
2%
11-448 (459)
VeryLucky888Invested
$152.39
Value
$3.94
PnL
-$12.08
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.