Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ohio State Buckeyes, while the market favors BYU Cougars (57%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. BYU Cougars

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State Buckeyes (67%) · Ohio State Buckeyes at 43¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 3

Ohio State Buckeyes43¢BYU Cougars57¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio State Buckeyes

Consensus Traders

Ohio State Buckeyes 67%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$7.64

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 42.5¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio State Buckeyes at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State Buckeyes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors BYU Cougars 57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State Buckeyes43%

BYU Cougars57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State Buckeyes8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares10,013

Combined PnL-$7.49

BYU Cougars4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,808

Combined PnL-$0.15

Ohio State Buckeyes — 67%BYU Cougars — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State Buckeyes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBYU Cougars 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBYU Cougars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOhio State Buckeyes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOhio State Buckeyes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State Buckeyes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CyberScore.liveCTR	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 40¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$50	46% 413-483 (896)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	BYU Cougarsavg 60¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0	73% 3625-1339 (4964)
GA gagarin59CTR	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 39¢	$999.96	$987.14	-$12.82	51% 741-713 (1454)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 36.3¢	$502.2	$501.8	+$27.5	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
VeryLucky888CTR	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 38.2¢	$191	$192.5	+$1.5	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
NO NotJumpCTR	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 35.1¢	$175.5	$192.5	+$17	43% 9961-12947 (22908)
poshposhCTR<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 35¢	$68.78	$75.65	+$6.88	58% 11657-8494 (20151)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 37¢	$59.22	$61.62	+$2.4	50% 1254-1267 (2521)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	BYU Cougarsavg 60¢	$46.97	$46.97	-$0	54% 17545-14744 (32289)
SE sentrio<$100	BYU Cougarsavg 60¢	$20.05	$20.05	+$0	50% 25084-24791 (49875)
FE ferdinand2<$100	BYU Cougarsavg 60¢	$17.74	$17.74	-$0.15	48% 5733-6182 (11915)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 38¢	$3.8	$3.85	+$0.05	58% 4107-2926 (7033)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$50

Record

46%

413-483 (896)

JAMJAMJAM4

BYU Cougars

Invested

$1,000.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

73%

3625-1339 (4964)

gagarin59CTR

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$999.96

Value

$987.14

PnL

-$12.82

Record

51%

741-713 (1454)

38791873984189CTR

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$502.2

Value

$501.8

PnL

+$27.5

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

VeryLucky888CTR

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$191

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

NotJumpCTR

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$175.5

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$17

Record

43%

9961-12947 (22908)

poshposhCTR<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$68.78

Value

$75.65

PnL

+$6.88

Record

58%

11657-8494 (20151)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$59.22

Value

$61.62

PnL

+$2.4

Record

50%

1254-1267 (2521)

HomeRunHazard<$100

BYU Cougars

Invested

$46.97

Value

$46.97

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

17545-14744 (32289)

sentrio<$100

BYU Cougars

Invested

$20.05

Value

$20.05

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25084-24791 (49875)

ferdinand2<$100

BYU Cougars

Invested

$17.74

Value

$17.74

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

4107-2926 (7033)

Research grade

AvoidOhio State Buckeyes at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State Buckeyes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors BYU Cougars 57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State Buckeyes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBYU Cougars 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBYU Cougars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOhio State Buckeyes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOhio State Buckeyes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State Buckeyes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State Buckeyes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.