Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
NJIT Highlanders vs. VCU Rams: O/U 149.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $480 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$479.95
-$47.16
47.4¢ → 50¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 48¢ | $333.7 | $254.37 | -$79.33 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
 RN1 | Overavg 54.9¢ | $110.89 | $129.21 | +$18.32 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 53.3¢ | $44.85 | $53.95 | +$9.1 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $21.29 | $21.29 | +$0 | 53% 1852-1667 (3519) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 36.5¢ | $13.98 | $19.33 | +$5.35 | 29% 177-431 (608) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $1.8 | -$0.6 | 34% 328-634 (962) |
Invested
$333.7
Value
$254.37
PnL
-$79.33
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
RN1Invested
$110.89
Value
$129.21
PnL
+$18.32
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$44.85
Value
$53.95
PnL
+$9.1
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$21.29
Value
$21.29
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1852-1667 (3519)
Invested
$13.98
Value
$19.33
PnL
+$5.35
Record
29%
177-431 (608)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
34%
328-634 (962)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.