NJIT Highlanders vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rutgers Scarlet Knights (33%) · Rutgers Scarlet Knights at 98¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
6
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 33%
$249.58
-$0.33
97.6¢ → 97.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRutgers Scarlet Knights at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Rutgers Scarlet Knightsavg 97.8¢ | $156.48 | $156.4 | -$0.08 | 52% 125-115 (240) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Rutgers Scarlet Knightsavg 97.2¢ | $85.54 | $86.06 | +$0.53 | 48% 859-937 (1796) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | NJIT Highlandersavg 2.2¢ | $3.52 | $3.6 | +$0.08 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | NJIT Highlandersavg 2.7¢ | $2.7 | $2.2 | -$0.5 | 25% 214-643 (857) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | NJIT Highlandersavg 2.8¢ | $1.63 | $1.28 | -$0.35 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | NJIT Highlandersavg 2.5¢ | $0.05 | $0.04 | -$0.01 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
nigiri99Invested
$156.48
Value
$156.4
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
125-115 (240)
Invested
$85.54
Value
$86.06
PnL
+$0.53
Record
48%
859-937 (1796)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$0.08
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.5
Record
25%
214-643 (857)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$0.35
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.01
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.