Spread: Oakland Golden Grizzlies (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oakland Golden Grizzlies (38%) · Oakland Golden Grizzlies at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Oakland Golden Grizzlies62¢Northern Iowa Panthers38¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Oakland Golden Grizzlies 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$18.81

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 61.5¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOakland Golden Grizzlies at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oakland Golden Grizzlies62%

Northern Iowa Panthers39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oakland Golden Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,202

Combined PnL+$18.2

Northern Iowa Panthers5 traders

Total Value$114.08

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$0.61

Oakland Golden Grizzlies — 38%Northern Iowa Panthers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Oakland Golden Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOakland Golden Grizzlies 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Northern Iowa Panthers 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 49¢	$1.0K	$999.75	-$20.25	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
└ Oakland Golden Grizzlies leg	Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 49¢	$539	$528	-$11
└ Northern Iowa Panthers leg	Northern Iowa Panthersavg 52¢	$481	$471.75	-$9.25
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 48¢	$978.41	$998.79	+$20.38	4% 20-518 (538)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 54.3¢	$392.61	$388.73	-$3.88	46% 311-372 (683)
└ Oakland Golden Grizzlies leg	Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 54.3¢	$262.56	$287.44	+$24.88
└ Northern Iowa Panthers leg	Northern Iowa Panthersavg 52¢	$130.05	$101.29	-$28.76
FO Forecastication2<$100	Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 49.8¢	$76.12	$73.44	-$2.68	45% 270-324 (594)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Northern Iowa Panthersavg 49.9¢	$63.47	$64.86	+$1.39	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Northern Iowa Panthersavg 52¢	$38.22	$37.49	-$0.73	48% 2231-2388 (4619)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Northern Iowa Panthersavg 51¢	$8.16	$8.16	+$0	54% 295-256 (551)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 55¢	$6.07	$6.57	+$0.5	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Northern Iowa Panthersavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.55	-$0.05	41% 706-1015 (1721)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Northern Iowa Panthersavg 51¢	$1.02	$1.02	+$0	50% 1636-1654 (3290)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Invested

$1,020

Value

$999.75

PnL

-$20.25

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

Both legs:

Oakland Golden Grizzlies$53949¢-$11

Northern Iowa Panthers$48152¢-$9.25

JAMJAMJAM4

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Invested

$978.41

Value

$998.79

PnL

+$20.38

Record

20-518 (538)

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Invested

$392.61

Value

$388.73

PnL

-$3.88

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

Both legs:

Oakland Golden Grizzlies$262.5654.3¢+$24.88

Northern Iowa Panthers$130.0552¢-$28.76

Forecastication2<$100

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Invested

$76.12

Value

$73.44

PnL

-$2.68

Record

45%

270-324 (594)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Northern Iowa Panthers

Invested

$63.47

Value

$64.86

PnL

+$1.39

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Northern Iowa Panthers

Invested

$38.22

Value

$37.49

PnL

-$0.73

Record

48%

2231-2388 (4619)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Northern Iowa Panthers

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

295-256 (551)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Northern Iowa Panthers

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

706-1015 (1721)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Northern Iowa Panthers

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

Research grade

AvoidOakland Golden Grizzlies at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Oakland Golden Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOakland Golden Grizzlies 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Northern Iowa Panthers 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oakland Golden Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.