Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Bowling Green Falcons

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green Falcons (13%) · Bowling Green Falcons at 100¢ · $678 held · ended Nov 13

Niagara Purple Eagles<1¢Bowling Green Falcons>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bowling Green Falcons

Consensus Traders

Bowling Green Falcons 13%

Total Value

$678.43

Combined PnL

-$100.36

Research grade

AvoidBowling Green Falcons at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green Falcons

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Niagara Purple Eagles0%

Bowling Green Falcons100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bowling Green Falcons1 trader

Total Value$613.23

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$0.76

Niagara Purple Eagles7 traders

Total Value$65.2

Total Shares2,130

Combined PnL-$101.11

Bowling Green Falcons — 13%Niagara Purple Eagles — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNiagara Purple Eagles 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNiagara Purple Eagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Niagara Purple Eagles 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Bowling Green Falconsavg 91.9¢	$612.48	$613.23	+$0.76	56% 324-253 (577)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Niagara Purple Eaglesavg 8¢	$66.37	$25.72	-$40.65	34% 685-1328 (2013)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Niagara Purple Eaglesavg 8¢	$57.63	$22.33	-$35.3	34% 690-1345 (2035)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Niagara Purple Eaglesavg 8¢	$38.48	$14.91	-$23.57	52% 399-371 (770)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Niagara Purple Eaglesavg 3.1¢	$1.55	$1.03	-$0.52	42% 419-573 (992)
RN1CTR<$100	Niagara Purple Eaglesavg 2.7¢	$0.8	$0.62	-$0.18	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Niagara Purple Eaglesavg 8¢	$1.12	$0.43	-$0.69	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Niagara Purple Eaglesavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.16	-$0.2	35% 302-554 (856)

0xheavy888

Bowling Green Falcons

Invested

$612.48

Value

$613.23

PnL

+$0.76

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

LimousinCTR<$100

Niagara Purple Eagles

Invested

$66.37

Value

$25.72

PnL

-$40.65

Record

34%

685-1328 (2013)

VenusianCTR<$100

Niagara Purple Eagles

Invested

$57.63

Value

$22.33

PnL

-$35.3

Record

34%

690-1345 (2035)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Niagara Purple Eagles

Invested

$38.48

Value

$14.91

PnL

-$23.57

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

smithagentCTR<$100

Niagara Purple Eagles

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.52

Record

42%

419-573 (992)

RN1CTR<$100

Niagara Purple Eagles

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.18

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Niagara Purple Eagles

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.69

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Niagara Purple Eagles

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.2

Record

35%

302-554 (856)

Research grade

AvoidBowling Green Falcons at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green Falcons

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNiagara Purple Eagles 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNiagara Purple Eagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Niagara Purple Eagles 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bowling Green Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.