New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Boston College Eagles: O/U 133.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 59¢ · $542 held · ended Nov 15

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$541.86

Combined PnL

-$99.87

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 58.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$320.93

Total Shares787

Combined PnL-$101.76

Over5 traders

Total Value$220.93

Total Shares480

Combined PnL+$1.89

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.3¢	$380.57	$281.11	-$99.46	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$2.3K	$94.56	-$0.09	64% 145-83 (228)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$91	$92	+$1	39% 234-370 (604)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 45.1¢	$50.39	$28.39	+$1	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 40¢	$18	$22.28	+$4.27	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 55¢	$17.52	$12.75	-$4.77	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 55¢	$6.6	$4.8	-$1.8	52% 419-387 (806)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$3.6	$3.68	+$0.08	44% 339-425 (764)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.3	-$0.1	43% 867-1151 (2018)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$380.57

Value

$281.11

PnL

-$99.46

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,255

Value

$94.56

PnL

-$0.09

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91

Value

$92

PnL

+$1

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.39

Value

$28.39

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$18

Value

$22.28

PnL

+$4.27

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$17.52

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$4.77

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$6.6

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$1.8

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.