Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (40%) · UC Santa Barbara Gauchos at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
5
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos 40%
$1.1K
$392.14
50¢ → 92¢
+84% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUC Santa Barbara Gauchos at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA gagarin59 | UC Santa Barbara Gauchosavg 50¢ | $421.17 | $766.53 | +$345.36 | — |
38 38791873984189 | UC Santa Barbara Gauchosavg 50¢ | $162.16 | $245.62 | +$83.46 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Nevada Wolf Packavg 49¢ | $90.65 | $92.5 | +$1.85 | 57% 3234-2442 (5676) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Nevada Wolf Packavg 50¢ | $47.17 | $8.49 | -$38.68 | 49% 61-64 (125) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Nevada Wolf Packavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.5 | +$0.15 | 34% 332-644 (976) |
Invested
$421.17
Value
$766.53
PnL
+$345.36
Record
—
Invested
$162.16
Value
$245.62
PnL
+$83.46
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
Invested
$90.65
Value
$92.5
PnL
+$1.85
Record
57%
3234-2442 (5676)
Invested
$47.17
Value
$8.49
PnL
-$38.68
Record
49%
61-64 (125)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
34%
332-644 (976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.