North Dakota State Bison vs. San Francisco Dons

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold San Francisco Dons (90%) · San Francisco Dons at 78¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 6

North Dakota State Bison23¢San Francisco Dons77¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

San Francisco Dons

Consensus Traders

San Francisco Dons 90%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$2.27

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 77.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidSan Francisco Dons at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

San Francisco Dons

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota State Bison23%

San Francisco Dons78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

San Francisco Dons9 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares11,473

Combined PnL-$22.94

North Dakota State Bison1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,040

Combined PnL+$25.21

San Francisco Dons — 90%North Dakota State Bison — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on San Francisco Dons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSan Francisco Dons 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSan Francisco Dons 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedSan Francisco Dons 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000San Francisco Dons 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	San Francisco Donsavg 77¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$1.44	54% 18312-15411 (33723)
HI hi774c	San Francisco Donsavg 78¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$25.37	46% 5267-6108 (11375)
FO forecastication4	San Francisco Donsavg 77¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10.65	50% 1396-1400 (2796)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	North Dakota State Bisonavg 22.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$25.21	44% 72-92 (164)
nigiri99	San Francisco Donsavg 78¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$13.47	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
0xheavy888	San Francisco Donsavg 77¢	$439.52	$340.63	+$2.2	56% 8126-6440 (14566)
BO BoomLaLa	San Francisco Donsavg 77¢	$154	$154	+$1	53% 12543-11257 (23800)
VeryLucky888	San Francisco Donsavg 76.5¢	$153	$154	+$1	58% 47174-34031 (81205)
SE sentrio	San Francisco Donsavg 77¢	$137.67	$137.67	+$0	50% 26188-25839 (52027)
PA Pan9X<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 77.9¢	$33.49	$33.11	-$0.38	54% 10159-8530 (18689)

HomeRunHazard

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$3,395.65

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.44

Record

54%

18312-15411 (33723)

hi774c

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$1,978.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$25.37

Record

46%

5267-6108 (11375)

forecastication4

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$1,639.33

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10.65

Record

50%

1396-1400 (2796)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$1,121.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$25.21

Record

44%

72-92 (164)

nigiri99

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$1,050.66

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$13.47

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

0xheavy888

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$439.52

Value

$340.63

PnL

+$2.2

Record

56%

8126-6440 (14566)

BoomLaLa

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$154

Value

$154

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

12543-11257 (23800)

VeryLucky888

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$153

Value

$154

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

47174-34031 (81205)

sentrio

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$137.67

Value

$137.67

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26188-25839 (52027)

Pan9X<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$33.49

Value

$33.11

PnL

-$0.38

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

Research grade

AvoidSan Francisco Dons at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

San Francisco Dons

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on San Francisco Dons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSan Francisco Dons 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSan Francisco Dons 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedSan Francisco Dons 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000San Francisco Dons 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that San Francisco Dons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.