Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UNCG Spartans, while the market favors Cornell Big Red (52%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

UNCG Spartans vs. Cornell Big Red

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold UNCG Spartans (31%) · UNCG Spartans at 49¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 14

UNCG Spartans49¢Cornell Big Red51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UNCG Spartans

Consensus Traders

UNCG Spartans 31%

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 48.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUNCG Spartans at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNCG Spartans

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Cornell Big Red 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UNCG Spartans49%

Cornell Big Red52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UNCG Spartans4 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares40,503

Combined PnL+$667.88

Cornell Big Red9 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares23,512

Combined PnL$-2.9K

UNCG Spartans — 31%Cornell Big Red — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on UNCG Spartans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCornell Big Red 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUNCG Spartans 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUNCG Spartans 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCornell Big Red 73% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Cornell Big Red 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TheOneto3CTR	UNCG Spartansavg 47.9¢	$13.9K	$14.1K	+$180.34	— 1-1 (2)
RollAwayTheDew	Cornell Big Redavg 67¢	$8.9K	$6.9K	$-2.0K	17% 55-264 (319)
SA SadSquid54333CTR	UNCG Spartansavg 44.9¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$354.9	57% 173-132 (305)
CUTJALENHURTS	Cornell Big Redavg 68¢	$2.6K	$2.0K	-$610.44	52% 2623-2458 (5081)
IC ic4cream	Cornell Big Redavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$16.07	6% 27-459 (486)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Cornell Big Redavg 52¢	$487.18	$482.5	-$4.68	49% 516-536 (1052)
38 38791873984189	Cornell Big Redavg 60.3¢	$467.25	$403	-$64.25	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
OM omoi0i0CTR	UNCG Spartansavg 41¢	$334.17	$391.23	+$57.05	— 4-3 (7)
BO BoomLaLa	Cornell Big Redavg 68.2¢	$505.19	$385.32	-$119.87	34% 144-285 (429)
CosmicCedarCTR	UNCG Spartansavg 37.9¢	$285.19	$360.78	+$75.59	32% 45-96 (141)
FO forecastication4	Cornell Big Redavg 58.4¢	$383.88	$341.64	-$42.24	32% 146-304 (450)
SH shiifoo	Cornell Big Redavg 61.3¢	$320.48	$11.48	-$9.01	61% 1409-891 (2300)
SE sentrio<$100	Cornell Big Redavg 59¢	$9.28	$8.18	-$1.1	43% 915-1235 (2150)

TheOneto3CTR

UNCG Spartans

Invested

$13,875.28

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$180.34

Record

—

1-1 (2)

RollAwayTheDew

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$8,932.04

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

17%

55-264 (319)

SadSquid54333CTR

UNCG Spartans

Invested

$4,473.43

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$354.9

Record

57%

173-132 (305)

CUTJALENHURTS

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$2,594.38

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$610.44

Record

52%

2623-2458 (5081)

ic4cream

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$1,670.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$16.07

Record

27-459 (486)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$487.18

Value

$482.5

PnL

-$4.68

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

38791873984189

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$467.25

Value

$403

PnL

-$64.25

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

omoi0i0CTR

UNCG Spartans

Invested

$334.17

Value

$391.23

PnL

+$57.05

Record

—

4-3 (7)

BoomLaLa

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$505.19

Value

$385.32

PnL

-$119.87

Record

34%

144-285 (429)

CosmicCedarCTR

UNCG Spartans

Invested

$285.19

Value

$360.78

PnL

+$75.59

Record

32%

45-96 (141)

forecastication4

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$383.88

Value

$341.64

PnL

-$42.24

Record

32%

146-304 (450)

shiifoo

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$320.48

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$9.01

Record

61%

1409-891 (2300)

sentrio<$100

Cornell Big Red

Invested

$9.28

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$1.1

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

Research grade

AvoidUNCG Spartans at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UNCG Spartans

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Cornell Big Red 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on UNCG Spartans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCornell Big Red 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUNCG Spartans 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUNCG Spartans 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCornell Big Red 73% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Cornell Big Red 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNCG Spartans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.