Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-36.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (40%) · Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
5
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 40%
$1.6K
-$5.25
52.4¢ → 52.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNorthern Arizona Lumberjacks at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Northern Arizona Lumberjacksavg 52.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1.31 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
BA BayupatiCTR | Arizona Wildcatsavg 47¢ | $259.79 | $259.79 | -$0 | 5% 6-120 (126) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Arizona Wildcatsavg 49¢ | $163.17 | $156.51 | -$6.66 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Arizona Wildcatsavg 47¢ | $33.84 | $33.84 | -$0 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Northern Arizona Lumberjacksavg 49¢ | $4.85 | $4.95 | +$0.1 | 24% 161-506 (667) |
Invested
$1,153.44
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.31
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$259.79
Value
$259.79
PnL
-$0
Record
5%
6-120 (126)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$163.17
Value
$156.51
PnL
-$6.66
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$33.84
Value
$33.84
PnL
-$0
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.1
Record
24%
161-506 (667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.