Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Alabama Lions, while the market favors Oklahoma Sooners (55%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Oklahoma Sooners (-26.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold North Alabama Lions (75%) · North Alabama Lions at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Oklahoma Sooners55¢North Alabama Lions45¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Alabama Lions

Consensus Traders

North Alabama Lions 75%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$3.37

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 45¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Alabama Lions at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Alabama Lions

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma Sooners 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma Sooners55%

North Alabama Lions45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma Sooners2 traders

Total Value$879.79

Total Shares1,600

Combined PnL+$56.56

North Alabama Lions6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,115

Combined PnL-$59.93

Oklahoma Sooners — 25%North Alabama Lions — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on North Alabama Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Alabama Lions 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Alabama Lions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Alabama Lions 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Oklahoma Soonersavg 51.5¢	$820.98	$877.37	+$56.38	0% 0-255 (255)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	North Alabama Lionsavg 47¢	$674.9	$651.05	-$23.85	30% 29-67 (96)
0xheavy888CTR	North Alabama Lionsavg 49¢	$164.03	$150.73	-$13.3	69% 27-12 (39)
VeryLucky888CTR	North Alabama Lionsavg 48.4¢	$101.97	$94.84	-$7.13	52% 59-54 (113)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	North Alabama Lionsavg 50¢	$250	$90	-$10	100% 27-0 (27)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	North Alabama Lionsavg 48¢	$72	$67.5	-$4.5	49% 377-392 (769)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	North Alabama Lionsavg 48¢	$18.44	$17.28	-$1.15	4% 9-248 (257)
RL RLWG<$100	Oklahoma Soonersavg 51¢	$2.25	$2.42	+$0.18	22% 26-94 (120)

ic4cream

Oklahoma Sooners

Invested

$820.98

Value

$877.37

PnL

+$56.38

Record

0-255 (255)

HomeRunHazardCTR

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$674.9

Value

$651.05

PnL

-$23.85

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

0xheavy888CTR

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$164.03

Value

$150.73

PnL

-$13.3

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

VeryLucky888CTR

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$101.97

Value

$94.84

PnL

-$7.13

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$250

Value

$90

PnL

-$10

Record

100%

27-0 (27)

38791873984189CTR<$100

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$72

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

hi774cCTR<$100

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$18.44

Value

$17.28

PnL

-$1.15

Record

9-248 (257)

RLWG<$100

Oklahoma Sooners

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.18

Record

22%

26-94 (120)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Alabama Lions at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

North Alabama Lions

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma Sooners 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on North Alabama Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Alabama Lions 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Alabama Lions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Alabama Lions 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Alabama Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.