Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Washington Huskies, while the market favors Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Washington Huskies (-32.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Washington Huskies (50%) · Washington Huskies at 45¢ · $89 held · ended Nov 10

Washington Huskies45¢Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils55¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Washington Huskies

Consensus Traders

Washington Huskies 50%

Total Value

$89.39

Combined PnL

-$2.31

Research grade

AvoidWashington Huskies at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington Huskies

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Washington Huskies45%

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington Huskies2 traders

Total Value$47.42

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$1.22

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils2 traders

Total Value$41.98

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$1.09

Washington Huskies — 50%Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 46.7¢	$46.08	$45.17	-$0.92	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
VeryLucky888<$100	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 53¢	$79.42	$41.43	-$1.11	47% 171-192 (363)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.25	-$0.3	20% 113-461 (574)
0xheavy888<$100	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 53¢	$0.53	$0.55	+$0.02	57% 70-52 (122)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$46.08

Value

$45.17

PnL

-$0.92

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

VeryLucky888<$100

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Invested

$79.42

Value

$41.43

PnL

-$1.11

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.3

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

0xheavy888<$100

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

70-52 (122)

Research grade

AvoidWashington Huskies at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Washington Huskies

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington Huskies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.