Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Duke Blue Devils (80%) · Duke Blue Devils at 72¢ · $556 held · ends Nov 11

Michigan State Spartans28¢Duke Blue Devils72¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Duke Blue Devils

Consensus Traders

Duke Blue Devils 80%

Total Value

$556.28

Combined PnL

$3.72

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michigan State Spartans28%

Duke Blue Devils72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duke Blue Devils4 traders

Total Value$503.32

Total Shares704

Combined PnL+$3.52

Michigan State Spartans1 trader

Total Value$52.96

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$0.2

Duke Blue Devils — 80%Michigan State Spartans — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Duke Blue Devilsavg 71¢	$236.43	$238.1	+$1.67	56% 100-79 (179)
HO HomeRunHazard	Duke Blue Devilsavg 71¢	$137.03	$138	+$0.97	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888	Duke Blue Devilsavg 71¢	$122.79	$123.66	+$0.86	48% 215-230 (445)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Michigan State Spartansavg 28.4¢	$52.76	$52.96	+$0.2	48% 752-814 (1566)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.57	+$0.02	23% 142-486 (628)

0xheavy888

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$236.43

Value

$238.1

PnL

+$1.67

Record

56%

100-79 (179)

HomeRunHazard

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$137.03

Value

$138

PnL

+$0.97

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$122.79

Value

$123.66

PnL

+$0.86

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$52.76

Value

$52.96

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

ameisgoat11<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.02

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duke Blue Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.