Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 147.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$173.52

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 91¢

+61% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,207

Combined PnL+$334.89

Over5 traders

Total Value$515.06

Total Shares1,450

Combined PnL-$161.37

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.2¢	$517.11	$847.31	+$330.19	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$434.96	$284.82	-$148.29	56% 312-248 (560)
RN1	Underavg 78¢	$196.55	$200.32	+$3.76	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$95.92	$95.92	+$0	17% 50-253 (303)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$2.5K	$94	+$2	82% 97-22 (119)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$31.5	-$15.5	29% 105-255 (360)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$8.4	$8.82	+$0.42	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 54¢	$3.48	$4.41	+$0.93	55% 211-171 (382)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$517.11

Value

$847.31

PnL

+$330.19

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$434.96

Value

$284.82

PnL

-$148.29

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

RN1

Under

Invested

$196.55

Value

$200.32

PnL

+$3.76

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.92

Value

$95.92

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

50-253 (303)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,450

Value

$94

PnL

+$2

Record

82%

97-22 (119)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$15.5

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$0.42

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$3.48

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.93

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.