Memphis Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Vanderbilt Commodores (40%) · Vanderbilt Commodores at 93¢ · $611 held · ends Nov 11

Memphis Tigers8¢Vanderbilt Commodores92¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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Vanderbilt Commodores

Consensus Traders

Vanderbilt Commodores 40%

Total Value

$611.03

Combined PnL

$2.65

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 92.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidVanderbilt Commodores at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt Commodores

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Memphis Tigers8%

Vanderbilt Commodores93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vanderbilt Commodores2 traders

Total Value$600.58

Total Shares649

Combined PnL+$3.25

Memphis Tigers3 traders

Total Value$10.45

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$0.6

Vanderbilt Commodores — 40%Memphis Tigers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 92¢	$592.73	$595.95	+$3.22	56% 100-79 (179)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 8¢	$8.15	$7.64	-$0.51	24% 205-638 (843)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.63	+$0.03	23% 142-486 (628)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 8¢	$2.2	$2.06	-$0.14	24% 202-633 (835)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 7¢	$0.7	$0.75	+$0.05	48% 752-814 (1566)

0xheavy888

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$592.73

Value

$595.95

PnL

+$3.22

Record

56%

100-79 (179)

VenusianCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$8.15

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$0.51

Record

24%

205-638 (843)

ameisgoat11<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$0.14

Record

24%

202-633 (835)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

Research grade

AvoidVanderbilt Commodores at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt Commodores

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vanderbilt Commodores wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.