Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold UMBC Retrievers (57%) · UMBC Retrievers at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

UMBC Retrievers63¢Morgan State Bears37¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UMBC Retrievers

Consensus Traders

UMBC Retrievers 57%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$88.83

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 62.5¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUMBC Retrievers at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UMBC Retrievers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UMBC Retrievers63%

Morgan State Bears38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UMBC Retrievers4 traders

Total Value$851.54

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL+$137.61

Morgan State Bears3 traders

Total Value$190.92

Total Shares490

Combined PnL-$48.78

UMBC Retrievers — 57%Morgan State Bears — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on UMBC Retrievers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMorgan State Bears 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUMBC Retrievers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UMBC Retrievers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	UMBC Retrieversavg 51¢	$616.33	$724.8	+$108.47	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
0xheavy888CTR	Morgan State Bearsavg 49¢	$163.17	$129.87	-$33.3	56% 312-248 (560)
CR Crazyboy77	UMBC Retrieversavg 48¢	$92.31	$121.15	+$28.85	11% 12-101 (113)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 48.9¢	$73.1	$58.32	-$14.78	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 55¢	$3.3	$3.66	+$0.36	55% 211-171 (382)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 49¢	$3.43	$2.73	-$0.7	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
RN1<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 63¢	$1.99	$1.93	-$0.06	56% 4589-3558 (8147)

HomeRunHazard

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$616.33

Value

$724.8

PnL

+$108.47

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

0xheavy888CTR

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$163.17

Value

$129.87

PnL

-$33.3

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

Crazyboy77

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$92.31

Value

$121.15

PnL

+$28.85

Record

11%

12-101 (113)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$73.1

Value

$58.32

PnL

-$14.78

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$0.36

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$3.43

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

RN1<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Research grade

AvoidUMBC Retrievers at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UMBC Retrievers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on UMBC Retrievers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMorgan State Bears 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUMBC Retrievers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UMBC Retrievers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UMBC Retrievers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.