Morgan State Bears vs. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Loyola Maryland Greyhounds (73%) · Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at 62¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Morgan State Bears39¢Loyola Maryland Greyhounds61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Consensus Traders

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds 73%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$26.56

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 61.5¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidLoyola Maryland Greyhounds at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Morgan State Bears39%

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds8 traders

Total Value$955.46

Total Shares1,484

Combined PnL+$37.07

Morgan State Bears3 traders

Total Value$167.37

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$10.51

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds — 73%Morgan State Bears — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Loyola Maryland Greyhounds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMorgan State Bears 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedLoyola Maryland Greyhounds 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Loyola Maryland Greyhounds 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 50¢	$525	$436.51	+$6.1	51% 917-874 (1791)
RN1	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 52.9¢	$165.57	$168.99	+$3.42	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
TH thirdt1me	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 48¢	$144	$162	+$18	48% 294-314 (608)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Morgan State Bearsavg 35.4¢	$103.19	$117.7	+$14.5	39% 593-921 (1514)
38 38791873984189<$100	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 49.4¢	$89	$97.2	+$8.2	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 57.5¢	$57.5	$54	-$3.5	35% 166-306 (472)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 56.6¢	$70.69	$34.2	-$14.49	45% 277-332 (609)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 49¢	$19.6	$21.6	+$2	83% 802-165 (967)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 63.8¢	$25.99	$15.47	-$10.52	34% 175-339 (514)
PA Pan9X<$100	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 50¢	$7.5	$8.1	+$0.6	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
BA Bayupati<$100	Loyola Maryland Greyhoundsavg 45¢	$4.82	$7.07	+$2.25	18% 32-147 (179)

NotJump

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$525

Value

$436.51

PnL

+$6.1

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

RN1

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$165.57

Value

$168.99

PnL

+$3.42

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

thirdt1me

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$144

Value

$162

PnL

+$18

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$103.19

Value

$117.7

PnL

+$14.5

Record

39%

593-921 (1514)

38791873984189<$100

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$89

Value

$97.2

PnL

+$8.2

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

BoomLaLa<$100

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$57.5

Value

$54

PnL

-$3.5

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$70.69

Value

$34.2

PnL

-$14.49

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$19.6

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$2

Record

83%

802-165 (967)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$25.99

Value

$15.47

PnL

-$10.52

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Pan9X<$100

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Bayupati<$100

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Invested

$4.82

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$2.25

Record

18%

32-147 (179)

Research grade

AvoidLoyola Maryland Greyhounds at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Loyola Maryland Greyhounds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMorgan State Bears 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedLoyola Maryland Greyhounds 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Loyola Maryland Greyhounds 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Loyola Maryland Greyhounds wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.