Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Montana Grizzlies, while the market favors North Dakota Fighting Hawks (60%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: North Dakota Fighting Hawks (-1.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Montana Grizzlies (22%) · Montana Grizzlies at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

North Dakota Fighting Hawks60¢Montana Grizzlies40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Montana Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Montana Grizzlies 22%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$0.55

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 40¢

-26% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMontana Grizzlies at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Montana Grizzlies

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors North Dakota Fighting Hawks 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota Fighting Hawks60%

Montana Grizzlies40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Montana Grizzlies2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,309

Combined PnL+$12.32

North Dakota Fighting Hawks7 traders

Total Value$989.87

Total Shares2,176

Combined PnL-$11.77

Montana Grizzlies — 22%North Dakota Fighting Hawks — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Montana Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota Fighting Hawks 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Montana Grizzliesavg 53.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.52	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
HI hi774c	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 46¢	$710.86	$703.13	-$7.73	24% 201-650 (851)
38 38791873984189	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 46¢	$189.52	$187.46	-$2.06	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 46¢	$55.25	$54.65	-$0.6	34% 170-325 (495)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Montana Grizzliesavg 55¢	$21.45	$21.26	-$0.19	53% 348-313 (661)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 46.2¢	$15.25	$15.02	-$0.23	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
VeryLucky888<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 46.5¢	$93	$14.78	-$1.16	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
FO forecastication4<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 45¢	$12.42	$12.56	+$0.14	34% 182-346 (528)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.28	-$0.13	42% 740-1034 (1774)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Montana Grizzlies

Invested

$1,224.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.52

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

hi774c

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$710.86

Value

$703.13

PnL

-$7.73

Record

24%

201-650 (851)

38791873984189

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$189.52

Value

$187.46

PnL

-$2.06

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

BoomLaLa<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$55.25

Value

$54.65

PnL

-$0.6

Record

34%

170-325 (495)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Montana Grizzlies

Invested

$21.45

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

348-313 (661)

Pan9X<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$15.25

Value

$15.02

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

VeryLucky888<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$93

Value

$14.78

PnL

-$1.16

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

forecastication4<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$12.42

Value

$12.56

PnL

+$0.14

Record

34%

182-346 (528)

ameisgoat11<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.13

Record

42%

740-1034 (1774)

Research grade

AvoidMontana Grizzlies at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Montana Grizzlies

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors North Dakota Fighting Hawks 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Montana Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota Fighting Hawks 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Montana Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.