Spread: BYU Cougars (-21.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold BYU Cougars (71%) · BYU Cougars at 51¢ · $891 held · ends Nov 13

BYU Cougars51¢Montana State Bobcats49¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BYU Cougars

Consensus Traders

BYU Cougars 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$890.72

Combined PnL

$3.71

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBYU Cougars at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BYU Cougars

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BYU Cougars51%

Montana State Bobcats50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Montana State Bobcats2 traders

Total Value$349.43

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$9.2

BYU Cougars5 traders

Total Value$339.29

Total Shares670

Combined PnL-$5.5

Montana State Bobcats — 29%BYU Cougars — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on BYU Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBYU Cougars 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBYU Cougars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BYU Cougars 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Montana State Bobcatsavg 48.3¢	$256.26	$264.93	+$8.67	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	BYU Cougarsavg 50¢	$400	$202	+$2	82% 97-22 (119)
└ BYU Cougars leg	BYU Cougarsavg 50¢	$100	$102	+$2
└ Montana State Bobcats leg	Montana State Bobcatsavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0
0xheavy888	BYU Cougarsavg 52¢	$173.16	$169.83	-$3.33	56% 312-248 (560)
VeryLucky888	BYU Cougarsavg 50.9¢	$144.68	$112.5	-$2.09	53% 852-766 (1618)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Montana State Bobcatsavg 49.7¢	$83.97	$84.5	+$0.53	28% 58-150 (208)
BI biying99999<$100	BYU Cougarsavg 51¢	$49.98	$49.98	+$0	31% 75-170 (245)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	BYU Cougarsavg 52.5¢	$5.25	$5.1	-$0.15	38% 509-821 (1330)
BA Bagwell306<$100	BYU Cougarsavg 49¢	$1.81	$1.88	+$0.07	29% 51-126 (177)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Montana State Bobcats

Invested

$256.26

Value

$264.93

PnL

+$8.67

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

BYU Cougars

Invested

$400

Value

$202

PnL

+$2

Record

82%

97-22 (119)

Both legs:

BYU Cougars$10050¢+$2

Montana State Bobcats$10050¢+$0

0xheavy888

BYU Cougars

Invested

$173.16

Value

$169.83

PnL

-$3.33

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

VeryLucky888

BYU Cougars

Invested

$144.68

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

OddstormCTR<$100

Montana State Bobcats

Invested

$83.97

Value

$84.5

PnL

+$0.53

Record

28%

58-150 (208)

biying99999<$100

BYU Cougars

Invested

$49.98

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

75-170 (245)

ameisgoat11<$100

BYU Cougars

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Bagwell306<$100

BYU Cougars

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

29%

51-126 (177)

Research grade

AvoidBYU Cougars at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

BYU Cougars

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on BYU Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBYU Cougars 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBYU Cougars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BYU Cougars 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BYU Cougars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.