Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Marquette Golden Eagles, while the market favors Michigan Wolverines (61%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Michigan Wolverines
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Marquette Golden Eagles (60%) · Marquette Golden Eagles at 40¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Marquette Golden Eagles
5
Marquette Golden Eagles 60%
$1.1K
-$0.02
38¢ → 39.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMarquette Golden Eagles at 40%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan Wolverines 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Marquette Golden Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 38¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$0.05 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Michigan Wolverinesavg 60¢ | $60 | $60 | -$0 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 38¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 | 52% 471-435 (906) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Michigan Wolverinesavg 60¢ | $4.2 | $4.23 | +$0.03 | 49% 677-717 (1394) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.9 | +$0 | 33% 307-625 (932) |
Invested
$1,036.12
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$0.05
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$60
Value
$60
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$38
Value
$38
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
471-435 (906)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
677-717 (1394)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
307-625 (932)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.