Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Manhattan Jaspers, while the market favors Le Moyne Dolphins (68%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Manhattan Jaspers vs. Le Moyne Dolphins

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Manhattan Jaspers (83%) · Manhattan Jaspers at 33¢ · $834 held · ended Nov 14

Manhattan Jaspers33¢Le Moyne Dolphins67¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Manhattan Jaspers

Consensus Traders

Manhattan Jaspers 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$834.22

Combined PnL

$12

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 32.5¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidManhattan Jaspers at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manhattan Jaspers

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Le Moyne Dolphins 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Manhattan Jaspers33%

Le Moyne Dolphins68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manhattan Jaspers5 traders

Total Value$590.47

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL+$11

Le Moyne Dolphins1 trader

Total Value$109

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$1

Manhattan Jaspers — 83%Le Moyne Dolphins — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Manhattan Jaspers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrManhattan Jaspers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Manhattan Jaspers 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Manhattan Jaspersavg 42¢	$528.04	$540.61	+$12.57	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 50¢	$1.6K	$134.75	-$7.25	68% 136-63 (199)
└ Manhattan Jaspers leg	Manhattan Jaspersavg 50¢	$125	$107.5	-$17.5
└ Le Moyne Dolphins leg	Le Moyne Dolphinsavg 50¢	$25	$27.25	+$10.25
HO HomeRunHazard	Le Moyne Dolphinsavg 54¢	$108	$109	+$1	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 25¢	$25	$25.5	+$0.5	48% 294-314 (608)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 43¢	$19.42	$17.39	-$2.03	56% 541-433 (974)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 43.6¢	$5.34	$5.27	-$0.07	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Manhattan Jaspersavg 25¢	$1.67	$1.7	+$0.03	50% 2600-2575 (5175)

VenusianCTR

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$528.04

Value

$540.61

PnL

+$12.57

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$1,650

Value

$134.75

PnL

-$7.25

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

Both legs:

Manhattan Jaspers$12550¢-$17.5

Le Moyne Dolphins$2550¢+$10.25

HomeRunHazard

Le Moyne Dolphins

Invested

$108

Value

$109

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$25

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$19.42

Value

$17.39

PnL

-$2.03

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Manhattan Jaspers

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Research grade

AvoidManhattan Jaspers at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Manhattan Jaspers

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Le Moyne Dolphins 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Manhattan Jaspers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrManhattan Jaspers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Manhattan Jaspers 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manhattan Jaspers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.