Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Gonzaga Bulldogs, while the market favors LSU Tigers (52%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-5.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Gonzaga Bulldogs (29%) · Gonzaga Bulldogs at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Gonzaga Bulldogs
7
Gonzaga Bulldogs 29%
$4.9K
-$1.51
49¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidGonzaga Bulldogs at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors LSU Tigers 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Gonzaga Bulldogs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 49¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$25.09 | 50% 2522-2477 (4999) |
HO HomeRunHazard | LSU Tigersavg 51¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$14.08 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
HI hi774c | LSU Tigersavg 51¢ | $885.6 | $894.28 | +$8.68 | 22% 179-618 (797) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | LSU Tigersavg 51¢ | $76.5 | $77.25 | +$0.75 | 48% 3212-3512 (6724) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | LSU Tigersavg 51¢ | $5.83 | $5.83 | +$0 | 46% 492-579 (1071) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | LSU Tigersavg 51¢ | $3.57 | $3.61 | +$0.04 | 50% 1587-1614 (3201) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.43 | +$0.02 | 41% 693-1010 (1703) |
Invested
$2,458.38
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$25.09
Record
50%
2522-2477 (4999)
Invested
$1,436.42
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.08
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$885.6
Value
$894.28
PnL
+$8.68
Record
22%
179-618 (797)
Invested
$76.5
Value
$77.25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
48%
3212-3512 (6724)
Invested
$5.83
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
492-579 (1071)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.61
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
1587-1614 (3201)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.02
Record
41%
693-1010 (1703)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.